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Replant rubber Shanghai rubber short-term gain substantial gravity will raise prices (20-05-2015)


Abandoned so that production is estimated to decline severely cut  

Since 2014, Shanghai  rubber prices substantially lower the center of gravity moves to 13000-15000 yuan / ton, a record low range. However cheap rubber farmers led to frustration obvious enthusiasm, domestic production is expected to be more intense. Xishuangbanna rubber planting area accounts for one third of the country’s total area, I learned that when the main producing areas in Xishuangbanna in Yunnan natural rubber research, currently due to low income workers tapping a serious drain phenomenon cutting more disposable rubberproduction It is expected to decline.

Xishuangbanna production is estimated to decline

Currently Xishuangbanna rubber planting area of ​​about 600 acres, its natural rubber output in 2014 reached 350,000 tons, accounting for more than 80% of the total production of natural rubber in Yunnan. From gum forest ownership structure, land reclamation early planting area of ​​110 acres, the latter private new rubber planting area of ​​about 500 acres, of which 100 acres but is invalid altitude of 900 meters above capacity. Since 2010,Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation restructuring, gum forest conservation, management of tapping directly delegated to rubber farmers, so the current Xishuangbanna gum forest areas mainly in the rubber farmers and private rubber plantation master hands.

According to my estimates, about 30% of Xishuangbanna areas need to hire workers in rubber tapping, but due to the current low income Jiaojia corresponding tapping, tapping the loss of workers, resulting in more natural rubber disposable cutting phenomenon. Currently about 20% of the proportion of disposable cutting, production is estimated to decline by about 10%.

We have a whole gang rubber farmers own or gum forest of 20 acres that is assigned to 600 gum, to calculate the related earnings per mu 120 kg of natural rubber. Reference to the current 11.5 yuan / kg of glue prices, the annual income of 27,600 yuan, while the pension and tax nearly million to pay the remainder if used to feed a family of five or six people, life will be more difficult.

In addition, the rubber workers more modest incomes. Also with a 600 workers tapping gum trees (20 acres), natural rubber 120 kg per mu yield is calculated, divided according to the proportion of 6:4 standards, tapping its annual income was only 16,560 yuan, the average monthly income is only about 1380 yuan, far below the average wage income now 3,000 yuan / month.

The costs and the high cost of natural rubber in the middle

It is understood that the actual production costs and higher natural rubber costs. In order to deliver the underlying full latex production, for example, glue pre-acquisition point generally 400-500 yuan / ton cost sent to processing plants, factories processing costs about 1,000 yuan / ton, to Kunming, freight about 265 yuan / ton, plus areas premium 480 yuan / ton (Kunming to Shanghai, Qingdao freight 500-600 yuan / ton), totaling about 2300 yuan / ton. Plus delivery goods part premium standard warrants futures price spread with glue materials up to 3000 yuan / ton.

The total cost to the cost of workers 2,000 yuan / month, 600 gum (20 acres), 120 kg per mu, 6:4 divided into 8.5 months of labor computing, Daosuan glue cost of 11,800 yuan / ton, plus intermediate costs 2300 yuan / ton, Yunnan domestic full latex cost as much as 14,100 yuan / ton. I research learned that most of the glue rubber farmers price psychological expectations of 15 yuan / kg, that is the price above which are willing to cut open normally. And 15 yuan / kg glue price, 2300 yuan / ton intermediate costs, a full latex disk prices are up to 17,300 yuan / ton.

Replant rubber considerable short-term gains

Rubber planting earnings decreased, resulting in the main producing areas to cut trees abandoned rubber farmers phenomenon. It is understood that there are indeed areas of Xishuangbanna rubber tree felling abandoned phenomenon, but a lower overall proportion of cutting down trees, and more trees for the renovation of Reclamation. Among them, the rubber replanting forests are mainly concentrated in the big crossing post, Ganlanba area, replanting the area is estimated at less than 10 acres, 600 acres of natural rubber in Xishuangbanna relative total area is accounted for less than 2%.

As the past two years, the banana better returns generally lease land in Xishuangbanna replanting bananas, will receive an annual rent 3000 yuan / mu to 20 mu to calculate the annual rent of 60,000 yuan of total revenue, revenue more impressive. But limited to the extent of fertile land, water and other issues convenience, a more limited range replant bananas.Meanwhile, the banana price volatility, growing earnings prospects uncertain, most rubber farmers not rashly cut trees replanted.

In short, a serious loss in the tapping of workers so that the main producing areas cut rubber farmers abandoned phenomenon background, Shanghai  rubber 13,000 yuan / ton or less difficult to fall, investors focus will lift Jiaojia.

Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/27031.html



(source in Eximbank)
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